Donald Trump’s military intervention in Iran could be remembered as one of the most significant foreign policy miscalculations of his presidency, according to a leading BBC expert.
The United States and Iran reached a framework agreement on Sunday night aimed at ending the conflict, with both sides expected to formally sign the deal later this week. The 60-day ceasefire follows almost four months of hostilities that began after Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched strikes on Tehran.
The conflict has had far-reaching consequences, with Iran disrupting global markets by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. Trump has hailed the agreement as a major achievement, posting on social media: “Let the oil flow!”
Jeremy Bowen Warns Of Long-Term Consequences From Iran Conflict
However, BBC international editor Jeremy Bowen challenged suggestions that the outcome should be viewed as a success.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Bowen said: “It’s not simply a question of switching on [the Strait] and shipping out. The waterway will have to be checked, there are mines in it.
“It’s going to be a slow process and there’s the whole business of the longer term impact of the way oil is going to be produced as well as things like fertiliser.”
He added: “There are loads of long-term consequences of this war, it’s going to go down, I think, as one of Donald Trump’s worst foreign policy blunders so far.”
Bowen said both Trump and Netanyahu had anticipated that Iran’s leadership would quickly collapse following widespread public unrest and government crackdowns earlier in the year.
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“The regime was under a lot of pressure,” he recalled. “[But] essentially they got it really wrong. Far from crumbling, the regime if anything has come out of this stronger because they’ve discovered the potency of the Strait of Hormuz weapon which was always suspected but now they’ve tested it and it really works.
“The regime is still there because it was engineered for survival and that engineering worked.
“On the other hand, the Americans have had their limits of their power very clearly demonstrated.
“They burned through hard to replace weapons, their global rivals the Chinese will have been looking with great interest at what has been going on there.”
BBC Editor Predicts Historians Will Scrutinise Trump’s Iran Strategy
Bowen suggested historians may ultimately regard the conflict as a pivotal moment in assessing America’s global influence.
He said that when historians examine the war and “look at the long-term decline of the United States, there will be a substantial amount written about this episode”.
Trump, Bowen noted, is “going to do everything he can to claim victory, of course, I think that other people will be looking at it way more sceptically”.
The BBC editor also highlighted that details of the reported 14-point agreement have yet to be made public.
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“It’s clear that the big issue, the nuclear issue, has been deferred. That will go into negotiations that may go on for an awfully long time,” the expert noted.
“The assumption that the regime would fall in Tehran has gone, the business model of Gulf countries that rely on making the area a zone of stability in the region, that’s gone.
“Their faith in their alliance with the United States as their protectors has been badly damaged, and I think they will try and have – over the coming years – some rapprochement with the Iranians.”
Israel-US Relations Face Scrutiny As Regional Tensions Persist
Bowen further observed that sections of the Israeli media had reacted strongly to developments surrounding the conflict.
According to the journalist, the Israeli press has been “quite apocalyptic” about the strain placed on Israel’s strategic relationship with the United States, alongside concerns that Trump could blame Netanyahu for “dragging him” into the war.
He also cautioned that instability in the region remains unresolved.
Bowen pointed out that Israel has indicated it intends to continue military operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah while maintaining control over territory captured in southern Lebanon.
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