Andy Burnham has secured a commanding victory in the Makerfield by-election, marking his return to Westminster after nearly a decade away and increasing scrutiny on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.
The former Greater Manchester mayor won the north-west seat with a majority of more than 9,000 votes, re-entering Parliament for the first time in nine years. Burnham is widely regarded by supporters as Labour’s strongest figure when it comes to reconnecting with voters who have drifted towards Reform UK.
His arrival in the House of Commons comes at a challenging moment for Starmer, with growing discussion within Labour about the party’s future direction and leadership.
Andy Burnham Signals Next Steps After By-Election Victory
Burnham is not expected to make any immediate move against Starmer before being formally sworn in as the MP for Makerfield next week.
However, he appeared to hint at future developments during his victory speech, describing the result as Labour’s “final chance” to change.
Under Labour Party rules, a leadership contest can be triggered if a challenger secures the backing of at least 81 Labour MPs. Burnham is understood to have already surpassed that figure.
Meanwhile, those close to Burnham have reportedly dismissed an earlier offer from Starmer to join the government, describing the proposal as a “non-starter”.
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Starmer has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to resign, while senior figures around him continue to encourage him to remain in office.
Should a leadership contest take place, Labour’s rules mean Starmer’s name would automatically appear on the ballot as the incumbent leader.
His position nevertheless remains uncertain, with reports suggesting that further cabinet resignations could be used as a means of increasing pressure on him. Burnham’s allies are said to have urged ministers to postpone any departures to avoid creating instability.
Will Labour Face A Leadership Contest?
The prospect of a leadership race largely depends on Starmer’s next move.
Those backing Burnham want the prime minister to outline a timetable for stepping aside in the coming weeks, allowing what they hope would be a smooth handover.
Such a scenario would also provide Burnham with an opportunity to finalise his policy agenda and prepare for a potential uncontested leadership bid if no significant challengers emerge.
There are already indications that several figures could enter the race. Wes Streeting, who stepped down as health secretary last month, has confirmed he would participate in any contest. Former armed forces minister Al Carns has also openly expressed leadership ambitions.
SurgeZirc UK understands that a number of female Labour MPs are encouraging Yvette Cooper to consider a bid as well.
Polling conducted by YouGov suggests Burnham would comfortably outperform his potential rivals among Labour Party members.
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Set To Follow
Burnham’s return to Parliament is expected to trigger another electoral contest, with estimates placing the cost of replacing him as mayor at around £4.7 million.
Opponents have frequently cited both that expense and his 63.4% vote share in the 2024 mayoral election as reasons why he should have remained in office until the end of his term.
However, MPs cannot simultaneously serve as regional mayors because the position also carries responsibilities linked to the police and crime commissioner role.
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As a result, a by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty is expected to take place on July 30.
Questions also remain over whether the government will attempt to introduce a different voting system for the contest. Ministers previously pledged to replace first-past-the-post with the supplementary vote system, although it remains unclear whether that change will be implemented in time.
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Regardless of the voting method used, the race is expected to attract strong competition, with Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party all anticipated to mount significant campaigns.
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