Support for Reform UK has declined just weeks before voters head to the polls in key elections across Britain.
Two fresh opinion polls indicate the party’s recent surge may be losing pace, dealing a setback to Nigel Farage and his team. Research conducted by Norstat for the Sunday Times shows Reform’s backing in Scotland has fallen by four percentage points to 15%, placing it in a contest with Labour for second place behind the SNP.
At the same time, a survey by Lord Ashcroft for the Mail on Sunday suggests Reform no longer holds a clear national lead. The party is now level on 21% with both the Conservatives and the Greens, while Labour trails at 17%.
Reform UK Polling Decline Ahead Of May Elections
These results are likely to concern party officials, who have frequently highlighted Reform’s strong polling performance over the past year.
Voters in Scotland, England and Wales are set to cast their ballots on May 7 in what will be the most significant electoral test since the 2024 general election. One polling expert warned Labour is heading for “a total bloodbath”, with the Conservatives also expected to face heavy losses.
Although Reform and the Greens are still predicted to gain ground as support shifts away from the two dominant parties, the latest figures suggest Reform’s anticipated breakthrough may be more limited than earlier projections indicated.
Candidate Issues And Campaign Setbacks Hit Reform Momentum
The party has faced a challenging start to its campaign, with several candidates stepping down or being removed.
Last month, HuffPost UK reported that Reform had resorted to asking individuals — including a Liberal Democrat councillor — to stand as “paper candidates”, pointing to difficulties in recruiting enough representatives.
Further controversy arose when the party dismissed its housing spokesman over remarks relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster.
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Simon Dudley, who had been in the role for less than a month, said “everyone dies in the end” and “fires happen” while arguing that building regulations have become too restrictive.
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