Labour is bracing for significant setbacks in the upcoming May 7 elections, with one polling expert warning the party could suffer a “total bloodbath”.
Voters across England, Scotland and Wales are set to head to the polls in what will be the most significant gauge of public sentiment since Sir Keir Starmer secured a landslide general election victory less than two years ago.
However, Labour’s standing has weakened considerably since that triumph, with the party and the prime minister experiencing a sharp decline in popularity following a string of gaffes, ministerial resignations, controversies and scandals.
Polling Forecast Signals Heavy Losses For Labour And Conservatives
Ben Walker, co-founder of polling analysts Britain Elects and a Labour councillor, indicated that the outlook for May 7 is bleak not only for his party but also for the Conservatives.
In a post on X, he said: “Putting together the English local election forecast. Scotland and Wales done.
“I have to say, and not to give a sneak peak, but to affirm what’s been written elsewhere: this May is going to be absolutely terrible for the Tories. But a total bloodbath for Labour.”
Scotland And Wales Elections Could Shift Political Control
The Starmer’s party is also facing a difficult battle in Scotland, where it risks another defeat to the SNP in the Scottish Parliament elections. There are indications the party could even fall behind Reform UK, placing it in third position.
In Wales, the situation appears equally challenging. The ruling party is on course to lose control of the Senedd for the first time since its establishment in 1999, with Plaid Cymru emerging as a potential leader of the next government.
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Approximately 5,000 council seats will be contested on the same day, and recent analysis suggests Labour could lose close to 2,000 of them. Reform UK and the Green Party are expected to make notable advances.
Early warning signs have already emerged. A by-election held on Thursday for a seat on Rossendale Borough Council saw Labour’s vote share fall sharply by nearly 28%, resulting in a loss to the Greens.
Meanwhile, Reform secured 34.5% of the vote from a standing start—15 points ahead of Labour—highlighting the shifting dynamics ahead of the nationwide vote.
Hareholme & Waterfoot (Rossendale) Council By-Election Result:
🌍 GRN: 37.7% (+9.2)
➡️ RFM: 34.5% (New)
🌹 LAB: 19.2% (-27.9)
🌳 CON: 6.8% (-17.6)
🔶 LDM: 1.8% (New)Green GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2024.— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) April 2, 2026
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