When the war in Ukraine began, sweeping economic sanctions were expected to cripple Russia’s economy, making it harder for Vladimir Putin to finance his military efforts.
The reason for implementing sanctions was clear: block Russian exports to Europe, restrict the flow of European goods into Russia, seize foreign assets, and penalize key figures. Yet, two years later, the reality looks quite different.
European goods still enter Russia despite the sanctions, often rerouted through Central Asian and Caucasus nations. Due to restrictions, Russian oil continues to flow globally, albeit at slightly lower prices.
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Despite the sanctions, billions of euros continue to move between Europe and Russia, ensuring the latter can still acquire critical components—sometimes indirectly from European sources.
The result? Russia’s war machine remains funded, and its battlefield position has not weakened as much as Western leaders once promised.
The Hidden Shift: From Gas to Fertilizers
One of the most visible successes of sanctions appears to be Europe’s reduced reliance on Russian gas. Before the war, Russia supplied nearly 50% of the EU’s gas; today, that figure has dropped to around 20%.
This decline has led to soaring energy prices, affecting both households and industries. Many European factories, especially in the chemical sector, have struggled to maintain production due to high energy costs.
However, this shift has had an unintended consequence. Europe, unable to produce ammonia—a crucial nitrogen-based chemical used in fertilizers—at competitive prices, has turned to imports. And where is much of that ammonia coming from? Russia.
Rising Imports Despite Sanctions: Has Europe Traded One Dependency for Another?
Trade data reveals a surprising trend: since the invasion of Ukraine, European imports of nitrogen fertilizers from Russia have increased. In the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019), Europe imported 4.6 million tonnes. By 2023-2024, that figure had risen to 4.9 million tonnes.
While the UK has outright banned Russian chemical imports, the EU has quietly ramped up its reliance on Russian fertilizers.
This raises an uncomfortable question: has Europe truly reduced its dependence on Russia, or has it simply shifted from one category of import (gas) to another (fertilizers)? The data suggests the latter.
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